2022 property market keywords investment: focus on 25 cities

2022-06-17 0 By

In 2021, 22 key cities will adopt “dual concentration” land supply, which brings unprecedented challenges to enterprises’ investment and expansion. The game of real estate investment increases, and the depth of short-term capital pool becomes an important weight for enterprises to increase their reserves.2021 is also the biggest year for enterprises to face survival crisis and capital crisis in the past five years. Financing tightening and enterprise explosion bring credit crisis, and constantly “tear” the capital gap of housing enterprises.Concentrated land supply overlay enterprise capital crisis, resulting in 2021 real estate enterprises always maintain a prudent attitude of investment, the annual top 100 land sales ratio is only 0.29, a new low in the past five years.”If you don’t make money in the first half of the year, you should take land, and if you don’t make money in the second half of the year, you won’t invest” is the epitome of real estate investment in 2021.With the first concentrated land supply as the turning point, the whole year showed a trend of “raising and then suppressing”.Second quarter in the first round set for the scale enterprise, the strategy of “false start”, the enterprise investment, actively plunged enterprise, monthly investment peaked in June, but in the ensuing explosion ray and shortage of funds, leading to the fourth quarter investment cliff, few of two rounds of enterprise scale, the brand enterprise, to the land, “on hold” for many enterprises to survive the land.Looking ahead to 2022, it will be difficult for cautious investment expectations to be significantly reversed. Structural recovery of investment is highly likely, but it still needs some transmission time. It is estimated that investment intensity will take 3-6 months to repair.In terms of strategy, urban differentiation is becoming more and more serious. For city selection, we insist on long-term focus on 25 core first, second and third tier cities with good population fundamentals, sound economic foundation and strong soft power.In 2021, the threshold of 100 new goods value will be 21.44 billion yuan, down 3% year-on-year. The threshold of 100 new land value and new land surface construction will be 8.3 billion yuan and 1.528 million square meters respectively, in which the amount will increase 13% year-on-year, and the surface construction will decrease 20%.The head of the new investment slowed down, but in the whole industry is facing financial pressure, investment contraction under the background, the concentration of the value of new goods is still high, the value of the top ten companies accounted for 35% of the new value of the top 100, 11-20 companies accounted for 20% of the new value of the top 100, that is to say, more than half of the new value of the top 100 companies were 20 houses exclusively,The remaining 80 housing enterprises can only be divided into 45%, the strong constant strong pattern has not changed.From the land sales than changes can be seen this year housing enterprises cautious investment attitude.In 2021, the land acquisition ratio of the top 100 real estate enterprises is only 0.25, down 0.12 from last year, and down more than 50% from the peak in 2017, and the lowest in nearly five years.Since most large-scale real estate enterprises still focus on the first and second tier, and 22 core cities have adopted the “dual centralized land supply”, the investment enthusiasm of the top 100 real estate enterprises is closely related to the rhythm of dual centralized land supply.The peak of land acquisition at the end of the past did not appear, so it can be seen that under the current policy and market environment, housing enterprises are subject to the pressure from the supply side and the capital side, and their investment style is cautious.On the other hand, at the end of the year, housing enterprises have increased sales efforts, so the overall land sales ratio further reduced.From the sales of the top 50 real estate enterprises monthly investment intensity change, the whole year showed a trend of “first up and then down”.Looking at the investment performance of the top 100 real estate enterprises in 2021, due to the financial pressure brought by concentrated land supply, as well as the continuous contraction of financing, the market downturn and other factors, more than 60% of the top 100 real estate enterprises took land decreased year on year, and nearly 30% of real estate enterprises saw a year-on-year decline of up to 50%.In the overall performance of the downturn, there are still some real estate enterprises in 2021 investment to maintain a relatively positive and steady trend, mainly state-owned enterprises.In the centralized land supply, the investment performance of enterprises is also very different: in the first round of centralized land supply, the regional deep-farming real estate enterprises and large-scale real estate enterprises are more active, while in the second and third round of centralized land supply, many private enterprises are “invisible”, and state-owned enterprises and local platform companies become the main force to acquire land.On the one hand, in 2021, the financing cash flow of real estate enterprises sharply contracted, “no money to take land”;On the other hand, in the second round of centralized land supply cities to take their own funds to strengthen the audit, the threshold to take land significantly improved.According to CRIC statistics, the top 100 real estate enterprises in the first round of centralized land supply, the amount of land acquisition more than 920 billion yuan, and in the second round of centralized land supply, the amount of land acquisition sharply reduced to 340 billion yuan, a drop of up to 63%.By type of business, private companies saw the biggest drop, with investment in the second round down 83% from the first round and in the third round down nearly 30%.The amount of land taken by soes in the second round dropped 42% from the first round, while the third round continued to drop 41% from the second round.As financing and land auction policies continue to tighten, private enterprises are far more severely affected than state-owned and central enterprises.In 2021 under the influence of concentrated by a second-tier cities absorb seven hundreds strong enterprise, investment, is close to 10% in 2020, under the condition of cash flow of the enterprise, the overall tightening, core cities, high quality land take priority to further enhance, and because of the uneven distribution of concentration of funds for the short-term high, a lot of enterprise, in order to ensure the focus for the land,Some third – and fourth-tier cities have given up the opportunity to take land.Among the TOP20 cities, 15 are pilot cities for centralized land supply. Wenzhou, foshan, jinhua, shaoxing and dongguan are also among the TOP20 cities for land supply. The market differentiation among cities will be more obvious in the future.Although the introduction of some policies at the end of the year has given the market confidence to build a bottom, enterprises still face great difficulties in terms of the current sales and financing situation. Sales, payment collection and debt repayment are the primary tasks.Therefore, the foundation of short-term market bottoming and rebound is not solid. It is expected that the repair of investment intensity still needs to go through the adjustment period of 3-6 months, and a cautious attitude is still the main melody of future investment.On the one hand, the current cautious investment comes from the problem of enterprise capital chain. In order to survive, some real estate enterprises will sell part of the project or land, and there will be more acquisition opportunities in 2022.M&a is still one of the sources of growth for enterprises, especially high-quality cash flow projects, which meet the current development needs of enterprises. In the future, the situation of “big fish eating big fish” will become more frequent.On the other hand, investment caution is affected to a certain extent by the dual centralized land supply, policy tightening superimposed centralized selling, testing the cash flow of real estate enterprises at the same time, but also greatly limited the land acquisition strategy of enterprises.In 2022, 22 core cities with concentrated land supply should still be the focus of real estate enterprises.Under the expectation of “three stability”, there is still room for price reduction in all cities in the future. Once the enthusiasm of the first round of concentrated land supply is low in 2022, the land price may be reduced in the second round of concentrated land supply. Combined with the expectation of market recovery and loose funds, there will be a window period for the second round of concentrated land supply or replenishment of real estate enterprises next year.In the selection of land plots, the high price of land acquisition needs to strictly control risks, and the proportion of strategic investment also needs to be reduced. In the future, land acquisition should pay attention to the profitability of land plots, strictly control the project capital recovery cycle and profit margin, and most real estate enterprises need to avoid the capital recovery cycle of 1 year and profit margin of 5% land plots.In the short term, moderate fast turnover is still necessary for real estate enterprises, for the current industry is going through the “winter” stage, asset light, fast turnover is still the first choice.The evaluation of urban prospects requires the combination of “soft and hard” cities, and the first and second tier of core cities are still the first choice. Sufficient demand, large population base, outstanding economic and real estate fundamentals make these cities have great potential.As for the investment in third-tier and fourth-tier cities, most of the ordinary third-tier and fourth-tier investments are not of high value, and enterprises should keep a cautious attitude. Demand overdraft and lack of purchasing power are huge potential risks in these cities, according to the trend of “the squeeze effect brought by concentrated land supply and the loss of concentrated land supply in the second half of this year”.The core third and fourth lines in urban agglomerations are still supported by policies, industries, population and economy.It is worth noting that, as the industry moves from the Platinum age to the Bronze Age, the scale is about to enter the stage of no growth, and the differentiation between cities will become more and more intense, requiring more accurate selection and judgment of cities.In addition to “hard indicators” such as urban economic growth, infrastructure in real estate development, demand, population and inventory, soft indicators such as “urban control, new economy, foreign population settlement and cultural performance” should also be considered.Comprehensive comparison shows that under the background of differentiation, enterprises should focus on 25 core cities for a long time.Namely the Yangtze River Delta of Shanghai, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Suzhou, Hefei, Ningbo, Wuxi, Changzhou, Wenzhou.Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Foshan, Zhuhai and Dongguan in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei: Beijing, Tianjin.Chengdu and Chongqing in the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration.Wuhan and Changsha, as well as Xi ‘an, Zhengzhou, Qingdao, Jinan and Xiamen, are among the urban clusters along the middle reaches of the Yangtze River.In conclusion, for most real estate enterprises, capital pressure is like a sword hanging on the top, and it is difficult to reverse the expectation of cautious investment. The recovery of investment still needs 3-6 months. In 2022, the second round of concentrated land supply or the window period for enterprises to take land, but the differentiation among enterprises will continue, and the main investment will still be state-owned enterprises and central enterprises.Most private enterprises should remain cautious. In the context of differentiation, enterprises should focus on core cities for a long time to support high-quality development.Article source: Ding Zu yu evaluation of housing quality content recommended linfen a coal mine was sent more than 100!Dongguan latest old map exposure to change demolition!Is there your village?In January 2022, 12 real estate licenses were obtained in Luohe, and 1933 houses entered the market!